Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $483,844$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{525,151.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 141.4)}}\) (asimptote \(525,151.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,658$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,125.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 168.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,125.4\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,077$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $391,044$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{487,701.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 179.0)}}\) (asimptote \(487,701.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,604$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(-1.1 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,650.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 149.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,650.7\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,656$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $281,481$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,824$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,044$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,465$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,625.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(93,625.2\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,000$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,073.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,073.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,136$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,097$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 121.3)}}\) (asimptote \(45,169.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,069$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,190.0}{1 + 10^{-0.705 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,190.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,230$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,932$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,907.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 155.4)}}\) (asimptote \(77,907.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $262$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.69 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{252.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(252.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,259$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,743$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(8.47 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,833.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(109,833.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $639$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{581.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 79.0)}}\) (asimptote \(581.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,328$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $337,711$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,070.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333,070.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,947$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,980.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,980.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,556$ on 2020-10-07