Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $483,844$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{525,151.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 141.4)}}\) (asimptote \(525,151.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,658$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,125.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 168.6)}}\) (asimptote \(36,125.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,077$ on 2020-10-07

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $391,044$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{487,701.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 179.0)}}\) (asimptote \(487,701.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,604$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(-1.1 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,650.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 149.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,650.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,656$ on 2020-10-07

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $281,481$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,824$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,044$ on 2020-10-07

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,465$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{-17} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,625.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 127.4)}}\) (asimptote \(93,625.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,000$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,073.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,073.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,136$ on 2020-10-07

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,097$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 121.3)}}\) (asimptote \(45,169.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,069$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,190.0}{1 + 10^{-0.705 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,190.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,230$ on 2020-10-07

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,932$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,907.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 155.4)}}\) (asimptote \(77,907.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $262$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.69 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{252.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(252.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,259$ on 2020-10-07

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,743$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(8.47 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,833.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(109,833.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $639$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{581.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 79.0)}}\) (asimptote \(581.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,328$ on 2020-10-07

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $337,711$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,070.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333,070.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,947$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(423 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,980.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,980.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,556$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Saudi Arabia recovered 85%
Yemen recovered 78%
Kuwait recovered 54%
Tajikistan recovered 42%
Bahrain recovered 39%
Bangladesh recovered 30%
Israel recovered 13%
India recovered 11%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,840$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(-3.64 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,027.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.5)}}\) (asimptote \(56,027.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.66 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $189$ on 2020-10-07

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,454$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,638.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,638.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(-1.17 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,741.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,741.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,104$ on 2020-10-07

Yemen⮸

Population $29,825,964$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-05-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,049$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(620 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,002.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,002.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $593$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{578.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(578.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $128$ on 2020-10-07

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,055$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,259.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 48.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,259.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit exponential: \(35 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(127.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 25.6)}}\) (asimptote \(73.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,101$ on 2020-10-07